Posts in category: Mortgages & Home Financing

The nation’s largest mortgage lender just got rid of its minimum credit score requirement on most home loans.

The move is effective immediately and applies to conventional loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as FHA, VA, and USDA loans.

Instead of relying upon a hard credit score floor, such as a 620 FICO score, eligibility will be determined by the automated underwriting system (AUS).

The company is essentially removing an overlay it had in place above and beyond what agency guidelines required.

Why they’re doing it now is somewhat curious given loan volume has recently taken a dive.

Credit History Still Matters, But You No Longer Need a Specific Credit Score

First things first. This isn’t 2008 all over again. We aren’t going back to no doc underwriting and ninja loans.

Instead, United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), like other lenders before them, is throwing out the minimum credit score requirement.

My understanding was that they used to require a minimum credit score of 620 for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac approvals (conforming loans).

And a 580-credit score for both FHA loans and VA loans. Now they’ll apparently go as low as what AUS allows.

So if your loan file is run through Desktop Underwriter or Loan Product Advisor and gets an approve/eligible, or accept/eligible, it doesn’t matter what your credit score is.

It could be a 550-score depending on other attributes of the loan.

For the record, you’ll likely need compensating factors if you have poor credit history.

That means things like a larger down payment, or a low debt-to-income ratio (DTI), the good stuff that offsets the bad.

So before anyone gets too excited here, your credit history still matters. It’s just not as rigid as it was prior.

And for the record, this move simply aligns with the guidelines of Fannie and Freddie implemented last year.

Prior to this change, UWM had imposed a lender overlay where they required more than the minimum requirement to qualify for a mortgage.

Which bring up an interesting point; why now? Perhaps loan volume is getting low and they want to expand their offerings?

Or they’re just aligning with other top lenders and can’t not do it being one of the largest in the nation.

Credit Scores Still Affect Mortgage Rate Pricing

UWM will still rely on credits scores for mortgage rate pricing, which means loan-level price adjustments (LLPAs) aren’t going away.

So if your score is low, you’ll still pay more for the loan and/or get stuck with a higher interest rate.

However, you won’t be automatically denied because of a certain number like you were in the past.

That’s the key distinction here.

UWM CEO Mat Ishbia said the company’s own research found that credit scores aren’t the “strongest predictor of a borrower’s ability to qualify,” and that the AUS gives a more complete picture.

While minimum scores are going away on Fannie, Freddie, and FHA/VA/USDA, they will remain in place for jumbo loans, bank statement loans, and investor loans.

Good News for Homeowners with Marginal Credit But Strong Financial Profiles

For borrowers with lower credit scores, this could turn a denial into an approval, assuming the rest of the loan file looks good.

And because UWM works exclusively through mortgage brokers, those brokers now have a bit more room to say yes.

It also makes sense from a business standpoint. With mortgage rates now closer to 7.5% and loan applications sputtering, lenders are fighting over a smaller pool of borrowers.

By effectively widening who qualifies, it’s another way for UWM (NYSE: UWMC) to go after more of them.

However, it’s unclear how many borrowers will fall into this category of low credit but otherwise healthy finances, job stability, etc.

This is also a good reminder to shop around as some lenders have stricter requirements than others and you may be told you don’t qualify when in fact you might elsewhere.

Well, we got a tame PCE report this morning, which would normally be good news for mortgage rates.

But instead of seeing bond yields drop and relief come, rates are under pressure once again.

Part of the reason might be that GDP (and consumer spending) also came in stronger-than-expected today.

The other might be that bond traders are awaiting another key jobs report due out Friday.

There’s also the simplest explanation: that the trend is just not our friend right now.

PCE Inflation Report Comes In Cooler Than Expected

First things first. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE report, came in cooler-than-expected today.

That should be good news for mortgage rates. Any inflation reading that is below forecast should in theory mean less pressure on bond yields (interest rates).

In normal times, it might lead to lower bond yields on the day, which would translate to lower 30-year fixed mortgage rates as well.

Not the case today, perhaps because we also got stronger-than-expected GDP, driven by robust consumer spending.

There’s also the massive AI build-out taking place, which is also driving GDP higher.

But when you ignore AI infrastructure and consider that household budgets are beginning to crack due to higher prices, including gas prices, you start to wonder.

After all, consumer confidence just hit its lowest point since 2014. So just how strong is the economy today?

As a rule of thumb, a weaker economy leads to lower mortgage rates and vice versa.

So if and when this presents itself, mortgage rates might finally see some relief.

Is It Labor Over Inflation Again?

The story lately has been all about inflation, driven mostly by the war with Iran, which has led to surging energy prices.

Aside from having to pay more at the pump, diesel prices will make their way into everything else we buy (or need transported).

That puts additional pressure on rising prices and makes the Fed more likely to hike.

However, rate hike expectations plummeted yesterday after New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no urgency” for more hikes.

The sure-thing October hike that had odds of 70% on CME a week ago is now down to 39%. Yes, it can change again, but it’s a lot less likely at the moment.

At the same time, the JOLTs report revealed fewer job openings, meaning employers aren’t looking to hire as many people.

This can relieve upward pressure on wages and ease inflation, despite that uptick in consumer spending.

On Friday, we’ll get the monthly jobs report from the BLS, which could further strengthen the argument that labor isn’t so robust these days.

That would be the other way to see bond yields ease and mortgage rates drop.

It’s not the preferred path since it’s not good for the economy or individual workers, but it’s the other way to get lower mortgage rates if inflation isn’t cooperating.

So that’s the report you want to keep an eye on if you’re tracking mortgage rates this week.

The Economic Data Has to Keep Coming in Favorably to Avoid 8% Mortgage Rates

The comments from Williams helped somewhat, as did the cooler-than-expected PCE and JOLTS report.

But without an equally cool jobs report on Friday, we might see mortgage rates continue to tick higher and higher.

At last glance, the 10-year bond yield was at a new 52-week high of 5.30% today, which implies a 30-year fixed around 7.625% or higher.

If the economic reports don’t go our way, 8% mortgage rates aren’t out of the question soon.

Of course, there’s still the other long shot path, getting some sort of good news on the Middle East conflict.

That could really help mortgage rates too.

Well that didn’t take long.

One day after mortgage rates finally caught a much-needed break, bond yields are right back at new 52-week highs.

The bellwether 10-year yield briefly touched 5.35% this morning, the highest level since 2002.

That means 30-year fixed mortgage rates will probably give back yesterday’s gains and possibly more.

I expect rates to climb back to around 7.60% today, which puts us back at the high end of the recent range.

Oil Is Back Above $100 (And Everyone’s Bonds Keep Selling Off)

Yesterday, I pointed to easing oil prices as the reason for the rare down day in mortgage rates.

Well, that was yesterday. Oil is back up today. Brent crude is trading above $100 a barrel again after Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and more incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.

There’s also a tropical storm headed for the Gulf Coast, and Chevron is reportedly pulling some nonessential workers off its offshore platforms.

None of this is great for inflation, which means none of it is helpful for bonds or mortgage rates.

But oil is just one part of the story.

Bond yields are climbing all over the world, with the US 10-year gilt back above 5.4%.

Meanwhile, the 10-year here briefly jumped above 5.36% to a new 52-week high.

Stocks are hurting too. The Dow was down more than 500 points this morning, a day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs.

The 10-Year Auction and Fed Minutes Could Make Things Even Worse

There are two big events this afternoon that could push bond yields even higher.

First, the Treasury is selling $39 billion in 10-year notes at 1pm EST.

Investors have already been nervous about demand for U.S. debt, so a weak showing here would signal they demand an even larger premium to hold it.

Then later at 2pm EST the Fed releases the minutes from its September meeting.

That’s when it raised its own rate a quarter point to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023.

What everyone wants to know is whether that was a one-and-done move or the first of what could be several.

Fed chair Kevin Warsh came off hawkish in September, though the data since has been softer, with a weak jobs report and a cooler-than-expected PCE reading last week.

At last glance, traders see ~20% chance of another hike this month.

Keep in mind the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. But the expectation of more hikes can push bond yields higher, and mortgage rates often front-run those expectations.

Home Sellers Are Cutting Prices, But Higher Mortgage Rates Offset the Benefit

Redfin recently said that the share of sellers cutting their asking prices hit a new record for this time of year.

That sounds like a sliver of good news for prospective home buyers. And obviously it is to some degree.

But the 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% in last week’s Freddie Mac survey, the highest average since November 2023 and well above the 6.34% seen a year earlier.

And as I always say, it takes about an 11% drop in home prices to match a 1% drop in mortgage rates.

So while prices might be lower in the face of higher rates, the math probably still works against the buyer unless the price drop is massive.

In addition, I’ve argued we’re just seeing another round of mortgage rate lock-in as sellers simply decide not to list. Or de-list if they’re already on the market.

Mortgage applications have now fallen five weeks in a row, and I don’t see that changing unless bond yields stop climbing.

We’ve gone from sub-6% in early March to 7.60% in about seven months. That’s painful.

If today’s bond auction goes badly and 5.35% breaks, a re-test of 8% mortgage rates in the next month or two isn’t off the table.

Yesterday’s big worry was the 10-year Treasury auction. Would there be any appetite for bonds?

Well, it turned out to be good news because it actually went well. Mortgage rates had initially climbed on the day, but made their way back down in the afternoon.

But the move wasn’t sizable and likely won’t bring much relief to mortgage rates today.

The 10-year yield is still hovering around 5.25%, mostly flat from yesterday’s close, so 30-year fixed mortgage rates should remain around recent highs of 7.60%.

That means the “win” right now is simply not going any higher, though that’s not a guarantee.

The Bond Auction Went Better Than Expected

The Treasury sold $39 billion in 10-year notes yesterday and demand appeared to be solid.

Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, took 80% of the sale. That’s well above recent auctions.

And dealers, who get stuck with whatever nobody else wants, were left with just 2.5%. They typically end up with as much as 10%.

In other words, the bond buyers finally showed up once yields got high enough, which is something I’ve been pondering lately.

At a certain point, these yields go high enough and investors think, wait, these aren’t half bad.

The 10-year had hit 5.35% ahead of the sale, the highest rate since 2002, then backed off some once the results came out.

The takeaway is that demand for bonds is finally materializing, but only because the yields are finally beginning to look appetizing at these levels.

The Fed Probably Isn’t Done Hiking

The minutes from the Fed’s September meeting also came out right after the auction yesterday.

That was the meeting where they raised rates a quarter point to a range of 3.75%-4.00%.

A majority of Fed officials said another hike by year-end would likely be appropriate.

And Fed Governor Waller said this morning that more hikes will be needed if the data keeps coming in as expected (hot inflation), though he noted that they don’t have to come back to back.

At the moment, CME FedWatch put the odds of an October hike at just 17%, so back-to-back hikes seem very unlikely.

So chances are the next hike won’t be until December at the earliest, though the expectation of further hikes keeps upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Why Bond Yields Rose This Morning, Then Eased

The 10-year bond yield climbed to about 5.34% overnight, and once again oil was the culprit.

Brent crude jumped more than 4% and is back above $104 due to more attacks in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices had dipped yesterday after the IEA agreed to release more emergency supplies.

But as noted yesterday, a storm in the Gulf of Mexico has also forced Shell and Chevron to halt some production.

There are also reports that Broadcom is arranging up to $50 billion in financing for OpenAI, which is arguably another reason why bond yields are so high.

All the AI investment is crowding out investment for alternatives like bonds, which keeps pressure on yields.

However, there did seem to be a shift yesterday where bond selling finally faced resistance.

So perhaps mortgage rates might be nearing a top for now.

Just don’t mistake a pullback for a larger move. A positive bond auction took pressure off mortgage rates, but chances are the global bond rout isn’t quite over.

And until the Middle East situation gets resolved, higher oil prices will continue to pressure yields higher.

As stated, a win right now is simply not going any higher.

We got a rare winning day for mortgage rates yesterday thanks to what seemed like renewed interest in bonds.

The global bond selloff has been brutal for mortgage rates, but at a certain point things inevitably start to look attractive.

That got me wondering if bond yields have climbed high enough to finally spark some interest.

MBS investors might be thinking 7.5% mortgage rates aren’t half-bad, especially if rates stay in a tight range and the loans don’t pay off quickly.

But this is just one hypothesis. Perhaps mortgage rates will keep rising and simply don’t move in straight line.

Have High Mortgage Rates Finally Met Resistance?

The answer right now is maybe.

The 10-year bond yield has been relentless lately, climbing day after day and taking 30-year fixed mortgage rates up with it.

It rose as high as 5.35% a handful of times over the past week, only to get turned back each time.

So it’s clear there’s some sort of technical resistance there, where bond buyers show some interest.

Of course, the pullbacks haven’t been massive. We’re still looking at a 5.25% 10-year yield, which when combined with a 225-basis point spread gives you a ~7.50% 30-year fixed, as seen in the chart above from MND.

In other words, it’s not reason to celebrate since we’re only down from the highs of 7.625%.

But it does make you wonder if bonds are finally looking attractive at these levels.

After all, earning 7% on your money is pretty good for a relatively low-risk security.

Are Bonds Finally Attractive with Yields Above 5%?

It’s starting to look that way, but one or two days doesn’t make a trend.

Just like a couple down days for mortgage rates, the trend can still NOT be our friend even if rates drift lower for a few days or even a week.

The big positive was the bond auction yesterday that drew plenty of demand and put some worries to rest.

It seemed like bonds would never stop selling off and that nobody would show up to buy them. But lo and behold, there was interest, finally.

The auction proved that there are buyers out there at these much-higher levels, and buying is exactly what you need to go get yields (interest rates) to stop climbing.

There are some folks who even believe the 10-year has already peaked, though I wouldn’t count my chickens just yet.

It’s Ultimately Still Too Early to Tell

I remember when we’d get the odd soft inflation report or weak jobs report and everyone would get excited thinking the worst was finally over.

But one report isn’t enough. Two reports aren’t even enough.

Former Fed chair Jerome Powell used to say they’d take it one meeting at a time for this reason.

You can’t have a ton of conviction from a month’s worth of data.

So to think we finally hit a peak for bond yields (and mortgage rates) would be silly.

No Straight Lines

At the same time, something I’ve mentioned in the past is that nothing moves in a straight line.

Mortgage rates don’t just go straight up. Nor do they go straight down.

Like all other things, be it oil prices or stock prices, they naturally ebb and flow.

After such a relentless move higher, bond yields and mortgage rates could just be taking a breather.

There is certainly some optimism that we’re getting closer to that top, but at the same time it wouldn’t shock me if after a short break, we go even higher.

Again, it will depend on what’s actually happening out there.

If you’ve ever looked at a mortgage rate chart, you’ll see that mortgage rates experienced a double-top in the early 1980s.

That’s when mortgage rates hit all-time highs, with the 30-year fixed briefly rising above 18%.

Those are the rates the Boomers always like to bring up when today’s young home buyers complain that rates are too high.

Of course, it’s not apples-to-apples because home prices were much lower then, as was the cost of living.

But if history were to repeat, with a second top this cycle, it’d put the 30-year fixed just shy of 9%.

Mortgage Rates Peaked in 1981

During the week of October 9th, 1981, the 30-year fixed hit its all-time high of 18.63%, per Freddie Mac PMMS data., as seen in this chart from FRED.

But that was actually the second peak of what was a really tough period for inflation and interest rates in the early 1980s.

There was a prior peak of 16.35% seen in mid-April of 1980, before mortgage rates took a breather and looked to be heading down.

If you’re one of those people who believes that history repeats or “rhymes,” you might think we’re headed for a second peak.

So far this cycle, mortgage rates have taken a similar path, rising sharply before coming back down and looking like the worst was over. Then climbing again…

Current Mortgage Rate Peak Is 7.79%

We hit 7.79% at our peak this cycle back in late October 2023, then saw rates drift lower for years after that.

Before the war kicked off in early March, we were back around 6% and even slightly lower.

But that was short-lived, and since then mortgage rates have been surging higher again.

So much so that they’re now the highest they’ve been since early 2024.

Could they make a run toward those late-2023 mortgage rates next? It’s certainly not out of the question and the reason would be fairly similar.

A second wave of inflation, this time driven by the Middle East conflict and the surging cost of oil.

With a massive AI build-out thrown in as well that’s making the economy run hot.

A Similar Move Would Put Us Just Below 9% Mortgage Rates

Now assuming it did happen, and mortgage rates hit a new, higher second peak that was proportional to the 1980s move, the 30-year fixed would land around 8.88%.

Of course, rates could go even higher than that since Freddie Mac’s weekly survey data often misses bigger spikes.

So you might see a 9-handle on daily rate indexes like Mortgage News Daily.

But again, that’s only if this actually transpires and history repeats perfectly.

The somewhat good news is because mortgage rates are so much lower today, the cycle high wouldn’t be anywhere near those 1980s mortgage rates.

We wouldn’t go back to high double-digit rates again, but we would hit new highs for the current cycle.

And that would likely lead to even fewer home sales, which are already bouncing around 30-year lows.

But Would It Be Followed By a Housing Boom?

So it’d be even more bad news for the housing industry, real estate agents, home builders, loan officers, mortgage brokers, etc.

But, it’d also probably be relatively short-lived, and followed by a sharp decline, as parabolic moves higher tend to run out of steam quickly.

While the 30-year fixed was indeed above 18% back then, it fell to 12% about a year and a half later. Talk about some big moves.

In other words, the high mortgage rates didn’t sustain, and relief came pretty swiftly.

That means the silver lining here, even if mortgage rates do rise close to 9% in a second wave scenario, is that it would eventually lead to a period of low rates.

And a major uptick in activity for an industry that has been struggling for years.

There are several ways to get lower mortgage rates.

You can get inflation down, which is a positive for bonds and thus mortgage-backed securities.

Or you can get a slowing in the economy, driven by fewer job opening, higher unemployment, etc.

Sadly, that latter path seems to be the one that’s “working” at the moment, not the former.

After all, lower mortgage rates don’t do much good if fewer people have jobs.

Weak Jobs Report Provides Some Relief for Mortgage Rates

The monthly jobs report came out this morning and it was a lot weaker than expected.

Only 29,000 jobs were created in the month of September, well below the 84,000 forecast.

And the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, up from 4.1% a month earlier, also above consensus.

That initially led to a little drop in bond yields, which have been on a tear higher for the past month.

But it was short-lived, eventually turning the other way despite the poor numbers.

Still, mortgage rates might print flat to slightly lower today because of it.

Bond yields (and mortgage rates) had a good day yesterday, perhaps front running the jobs report.

There was a mystery drop in bond yields Thursday around 1pm EST after the bellwether 10-year yield crested at 5.34%.

So maybe just maybe the weak jobs report today didn’t have as much gusto as it otherwise would have.

As it stands now, we’re still nearly 10 bps lower than those high levels yesterday, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates are also off their recent highs.

Pressure on Mortgage Rates Is Coming From All Other Angles

Even if the labor data continues to come in weak (this report is but one report), there is upward pressure just about everywhere else you look.

We’ve got out of control government spending, we’ve got lots of bond issuance to fund the war in the Middle East.

We have a second wave of inflation, driven by higher energy prices, diesel shortages, etc.

There’s also the massive AI build out taking place, which creates more bonds that crowds out investors who might otherwise buy Treasuries or MBS.

So even if we get cooler-than-expected jobs numbers, they might not help mortgage rates all that much.

Labor was the focus earlier this year when it seemed like inflation was old news.

But then the war broke out with Iran and inflation once again became the more important issue.

This means not only is the jobs report a bad way to accomplish the goal of lower mortgage rates (since it’s otherwise bad for the housing market).

It’s also just not that effective at the moment. It’s no longer the chief concern for the Fed or the bond market.

Labor Is No Longer the Top Driver of Mortgage Rates (It’s Inflation Again!)

If things got really ugly again on the jobs front, sure, it could take center stage again.

But the limited downside movement after such a poor jobs report tells you it’s all the other things mentioned that matter.

In other words, if you want mortgage rates to go down, you want to root for an end to the war, which would lead to less government spending, lower deficits, and falling energy prices.

Those are all positive things that could bring mortgage rates down without hurting the housing market at the same time.

It’d also be a sustainable path for the housing market, where employment remains healthy but interest rates are no longer cost-prohibitive.

The longer this aggressive uptrend goes on, the more it feels like 8% mortgage rates are inevitable.

By some accounts, we are only about a half of a percentage point away.

And given the current climate, which feels very much like a higher for longer scenario, it wouldn’t take much to get a nudge back above 8%.

Of course, simply getting back to 8% isn’t the be all end all.

Perhaps what matters more is how high we go and how long we stay at elevated levels.

It Feels Like 8% Mortgage Rates Are Inevitable

I was on the fence for a while about how high mortgage rates would go.

It seemed like the recent move higher was a bit overdone (and it still may be), but without any sort of “brakes,” perhaps nothing stops this train.

We’ve got mounting government debt, sticky-high oil and energy prices due to the war, and what feels like another major bout of inflation.

Unless any of those things change, why would mortgage rates move materially lower?

The answer is they probably wouldn’t. And lately it doesn’t feel like there are any leads in any of those categories.

The deficit and related spending are out of control and are unlikely to be reined in.

The war you barely even hear about these days, which makes it feel more and more entrenched.

And inflation, despite the odd report that’s below forecast still seems like a major problem, especially because of the unresolved conflict in the Middle East.

Taken together, it’s hard to imagine mortgage rates coming down meaningfully.

Conversely, it’s quite easy to imagine them rising even higher from here.

How High Will Mortgage Rates Go?

Lately, I’ve heard all types of doomy scenarios regarding mortgage rates, with some saying double-digits for the 30-year fixed aren’t out of the question.

I don’t think it gets that bad, though I do see more upward movement this cycle before things cool off.

In a prior post, I laid out a scenario where mortgage rates experience a double-top like they did in the early 1980s.

We’ve got somewhat similar conditions today compared to back then with regard to inflation and an energy crisis, but arguably not nearly as bad.

Still, if that scenario plays out, you get a 30-year fixed around 8.88%. Not so lucky. Or maybe it is…

That would take a fairly considerable rise in 10-year bond yields along with wider mortgage spreads relative to Treasuries.

To get to 8.88%, you’d need a 10-year yield north of 6% (currently around 5.20%) and a spread maybe around 280 basis points (currently closer to 230).

Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? That’s another question.

We’ll need more of the same high energy prices, war escalations (or at least not improving).

And heightened inflation along with continued government spending (easy) and AI build-out.

The mortgage rate spreads can also widen due to volatility if rates are surging higher, creating a one-two punch.

How Long Will the High Mortgage Rates Last?

To me, this is the more important question.

Who cares if we get 8% mortgage rates again if they only last for several months?

Sure, it’d be a temporary blow and everyone would make a big thing of it in the media, online, etc.

It would impact home sales too, along with loan origination volume (not that it hasn’t already).

But if it proved to be short-lived, it wouldn’t matter all that much.

More concerning would be if mortgage rates find new footing at higher levels and stay there.

Then you’ve got some real problems for the housing market and the industry at large.

Either way, the solution is to end the war and control the spending so we can get inflation and bond yields lower, and thereby mortgage rates too.

It’s been tough sledding for mortgage rates since early March.

And especially rough over the past month and change, with very few down days.

But today just might be a winner though because both oil prices and bond yields moved lower.

That means 30-year fixed mortgage rates should also get some much-needed relief.

However, the drop will likely be pretty minimal and the larger trend still isn’t our friend.

Mortgage Rates Get a Rare Win Today

The bellwether 10-year bond yield that correlates strongly with 30-year fixed mortgage rates is down about five basis points today.

The move lower is being driven by lower oil prices, which take pressure off inflation and thus bond yields.

That should translate to a slightly lower 30-year fixed mortgage rate as well, though the movement probably won’t be anything major.

Still, getting a down day these days is hard to come by. So any sort of relief will be welcomed by both home buyers and industry participants.

We’re already hearing rumblings of mortgage layoffs again, and if rates stay at these high levels, there will surely be more.

In the meantime, expect the 30-year fixed to continue to hover around 7.50%, assuming things don’t get worse.

If things do get even worse, we could be looking at new highs this cycle, which were around 8% back in late 2023.

Mortgage Rates Remain Near Cycle Highs

Mortgage rates are falling today. That’s the good news.

The bad news is the 10-year is less than 10 bps off its recent high, and we hit new highs yesterday, so we’re still very much at the wrong end of things.

In other words, it’s a game of one step forward, two steps back. Repeated over and over again.

This upward trend in rates has pushed us from sub-6% at the beginning of March to as high as 7.60% this past week.

Perhaps we settle in around 7.50% if the global bond rout subsides. If it doesn’t, there’s not much to stop us from testing 8% again.

Or even going higher than that.

I wrote recently that if we follow a path similar to those 1980s mortgage rates, we could see a double-top and a terminal rate for the 30-year fixed around 8.88%.

That’s effectively a 9% mortgage rate and would surely spell disaster for the housing market, which is already reeling from the rise in rates this year.

But for today, take comfort that rates are lower and not higher. You’ve got to start somewhere.